The case consolidated three employment discrimination complaints made by gay and transgender individuals, and considered whether they are protected under Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Many experts predicted the high court would vote against LGBTQ rights in the Bostock v. This seemed to defy Roberts’ conservative ideology. Roberts authored the opinion upholding ACA. The court ultimately ruled 5-4, supporting the Affordable Care Act’s requirement that most Americans must purchase health insurance or face a potential penalty. But he was not right when he suggested Chief Justice John Roberts would align with Kennedy for a 6-3 vote in support of the ACA. Meanwhile, Stanford law professor Hank Greely correctly predicted the court would uphold the Affordable Care Act. They expected that Justice Anthony Kennedy, considered politically moderate, would not vote alongside liberal justices to protect the health care plan. Law school professor Adam Winkler was among the experts who predicted the court would overturn the Affordable Care Act. Initial predictions on whether President Barack Obama’s health care plan would survive a legal challenge were mixed, at best. Clayton County, about employment protection for gay and transgender individuals, offer examples of how justices’ perceived politics did not align with their votes. Sebelius, which considered the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, and Bostock v. Supreme Court decisions in National Federation of Independent Business v. SUBSCRIBE Political ideology isn’t always guaranteed One reason Supreme Court forecasts are often wrong? Justices stray from the public’s conception of their political ideologies, according to Livni. Veteran Supreme Court reporter Ephrat Livni wrote that this kind of unpredictability is a good thing, showing the court “is working as it was designed to by the Constitution.” Cases like this make it “ dangerous to make predictions” about the court’s verdicts, Chemerinsky wrote. Clayton County, which found that employment discrimination laws protect people based on sexual orientation and gender identity. One contributor to the site with no formal legal background correctly predicted Supreme Court decisions 80% of the time from 2011 to 2013, according to FantasySCOTUS.Ĭonstitutional scholar Erwin Chemerinsky has noted some of the court’s unexpected recent decisions, such as Bostock v. Meanwhile, there are Supreme Court followers who predict case decisions on the blog FantasySCOTUS. The project aimed to test quantitative approaches to legal predictions. The complex model was correct 70% of the time. Legal experts were correct only 59% of the time for the same term, according to the Forecasting Project.Ī 2017 study also used available data, like the background on cases, to retroactively predict Supreme Court decisions from 1815 to 2015. The project found statistical models, on average, correctly predicted 75% of Supreme Court rulings during the 2002 term. The Supreme Court Forecasting Project was an academic initiative in the early 2000s that compared statistical models and independent legal experts forecasting Supreme Court decisions. Research shows statistical models are more accurate than individual experts at predicting Supreme Court decisions. On the other hand, others have predicted the court “will vote to uphold the central holding of Roe.” Look instead to statistical models Abortion would then no longer be a constitutional right, and states could restrict or make abortion altogether illegal. Supreme Court expert Ian Millhiser has speculated that the high court will either “explicitly overrule Roe” or “eliminate it in a more backhanded way.” This “backhanded way” could leave Roe’s precedent intact, but weaken it so states can legally restrict abortion as they see fit.Īttorney and political commentator Sarah Isgur also has written that the most likely outcome is the court overturning Roe. Scholars and experts have made various bold predictions about the Dobbs case.īut, as I have told students for more than a decade while teaching mass media law, guesses about Supreme Court rulings are often not correct. But this Mississippi case is arguably the most important abortion case since 1992, when the court last reaffirmed Roe v. There are other ongoing court challenges to restrict abortions in different states, including Texas. Wade decision, which protects women’s right to abortion before the third trimester of pregnancy. This case could overturn or uphold the 1973 Roe v. The potentially historic case challenges a Mississippi law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Jackson Women’s Health Organization will not be handed down until late spring or early summer 2022, when the court typically issues verdicts.
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